October 15, 2019

The last time Nordstrom’s stock did this, it rallied at least 30%

The last time Nordstrom’s stock did this, it rallied at least 30%


The retail wreckage just got worse.

With most of the department store stocks at or near their 52-week lows, shares of Kohl’s put further pressure on the group Tuesday after the company delivered weaker-than-expected first-quarter earnings.

Despite the stock losses — which sent Kohl’s more than 12% lower in Tuesday’s trading session — some experts still see opportunity in the group, even with lingering threats from e-commerce colossus Amazon and the U.S.-China trade war.

“One stock that is getting quite oversold and looks like it might be ready for a bounce is Nordstrom, ” said Matt Maley, managing director and equity strategist at Miller Tabak.

Citing a 10-year weekly chart of Nordstrom, which reported earnings after Tuesday’s closing bell, Maley noted that one key indicator is approaching levels that have historically led to a bounce in the stock.

Nordstrom’s relative strength index, a momentum indicator that tracks when a given stock is overbought or oversold, is signaling that the stock is oversold, Maley said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Trading Nation.” In the past, that kind of action has brought about huge bounces in Nordstrom’s shares.

“When I say bounce, those bounces have been anywhere from 33 to 70% over the last couple of years,” he said. “Now, I don’t know if the bounce will be that much this time, but it’s also getting right down to its 2016 lows at about [the] $36, $37 level. So, with the oversold condition [and the stock] testing key support, if it can bounce off this level, it could be a much bigger bounce than a lot of people think is possible.”

Maley stipulated that only investors with an appetite for risk should consider buying into Nordstrom, because any break below the $36 level will likely lead to bigger declines. He spoke before Nordstrom’s stock nosedived 10% in futures trading. In Wednesday’s premarket, it was at $33.94.

“But still, this one’s getting to a level that you usually see some decent bounces,” he said.

Gina Sanchez, founder and CEO of Chantico Global, said the “death knell” from e-commerce isn’t anywhere close to subsiding.

“We’ve seen store closure after store closure, and that’s probably going to continue. Tariffs are going to make that worse,” she said in the same “Trading Nation” interview. “I think it really comes down to who’s getting their online story in order.”

One such company is Macy’s, Sanchez said, arguing that it’s “really starting to get [its] online story in order” and seeing the payoff.

But the group “as a whole is still a challenge,” she said. “You’ve got challenging elements in front of it, and that doesn’t end. So I think you have to pick and choose your stories here.”



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